The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.9% from 1.9%, citing resilient supply chains and strong investment in goods supporting artificial intelligence. Its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, released on October 8, also projects goods trade growth of 4.1% in 2027. The WTO said merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026 despite disruption from the Middle East conflict. Trade in AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers grew by 67% year on year and accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth during the first half. The services outlook moved in the opposite direction: the WTO lowered its forecast for commercial services trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.3% from 4.8%, citing pressure on transport and travel. It expects services growth of 6.4% in 2027. Dawn reported that the WTO identified a 73% year-on-year rise in Pakistan’s sea-freight transport service exports in the first half. That figure concerns one services category, not the country’s overall exports. The projections remain vulnerable to further disruption in energy markets and shipping routes, and gains are uneven across economies.
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