The International Monetary Fund has raised its projection for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, compared with the 3.0% forecast issued in July. The update was published in its latest World Economic Outlook on October 13.
The fund said investment related to artificial intelligence has helped support activity despite the energy-price shock linked to the Middle East conflict. However, it warned that rising debt burdens, prolonged conflict and uncertainty about the returns from AI investment create significant downside risks.
The upward revision does not mean the world economy is growing faster than last year: the IMF put 2025 growth at 3.5%. It expects global growth of 3.4% in 2027.
The forecast remains sensitive to oil prices, financial conditions and the duration of the conflict. Countries that import energy or have limited fiscal room may face particular pressure.
Sources
- https://www.reuters.com/world/china/imf-says-ai-investment-propping-up-global-growth-war-debt-threaten-outlook-2026-10-13/
- https://apnews.com/article/23aa01c0c6922fbf0b564a0ff9b2c8e5
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