WASHINGTON, October 29, 2026 — Global commodity prices are projected to increase by 23% in 2026 as geopolitical tensions, energy supply disruptions and pressure on agricultural markets drive costs higher, according to the World Bank.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday, the bank forecast a 32% increase in energy prices this year, reversing three consecutive years of declines.
Brent crude oil is expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before declining to $79 in 2027.
Food commodity prices are forecast to rise by approximately 10% this year and another 7% next year, reflecting risks from disrupted grain shipments, adverse weather and higher agricultural input costs.
Fertiliser prices are projected to increase by 14% in 2026, while industrial metals are expected to rise by 25%.
The World Bank warned that further disruptions to energy supplies or agricultural production could push prices above its central forecasts.
Its baseline projections assume that conflicts affecting international commodity markets do not intensify significantly.
For Pakistan, higher global fuel and food prices could increase import costs and create additional pressure on inflation and household spending.
Expensive fertilisers may also affect agricultural production costs, although domestic prices depend on exchange rates, government policies and local supply conditions.
The bank expects overall commodity prices to decline by 7% in 2027, suggesting some moderation after this year’s increase.
However, it cautioned that renewed supply disruptions could prolong market volatility and make economic planning more difficult for countries dependent on imported energy and essential commodities.