ISLAMABAD, October 30, 2026 — Pakistan’s Finance Division has projected inflation of between 9.5 and 10.5 percent for October, warning that volatile international energy prices and continuing geopolitical tensions remain risks to the country’s economic outlook.
The forecast was included in the Finance Division’s Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October 2026.
Consumer price inflation eased to 10.3 percent in September from 11.1 percent in August, but remained considerably higher than the 5.8 percent recorded in September last year.
Average inflation during the first quarter of the current fiscal year stood at 10.2 percent, compared with 4.3 percent in the corresponding period a year earlier.
The Finance Division identified instability in international oil markets, trade disruptions and elevated global commodity prices as factors that could continue to affect domestic prices.
Higher energy import costs can feed through to transport, manufacturing and distribution expenses, adding pressure to the prices paid by consumers.
According to the economic update, Brent crude averaged $116.8 per barrel in September, an increase of 28.4 percent from August. Natural gas prices also rose during the period.
The latest inflation figures show uneven price pressures across different parts of the economy.
In September, transport costs increased by 27.4 percent compared with a year earlier, while prices in the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel category rose by 12.4 percent.
Perishable food prices increased by 11.8 percent, and non-perishable food prices rose by 7.6 percent.
The Finance Division said future inflation trends would depend partly on international energy prices, domestic food supplies and the effect of comparisons with previous years.
Improved domestic crop supplies could help moderate food inflation, although external price pressures remain a significant source of uncertainty.
The October projection indicates that inflation is expected to remain close to September’s level, despite the recent easing in the headline rate.